Sunday 20 December 2009

A Bit About Statistics: Probability

Under the study of probability, which is a subset of the study of statistics, an event is formally known as the subset of the sample space. Where as the sample space is an exhaustive list of all the possible outcomes of an experiment. Probability is useful to predict the possibility of future event happens based on past events.


Take for example the Malaysian football team matches (which would be the experiment), therefore a sample space of Malaysian football team matches, which is usually denoted by the letter S, is S ={Win, Lose, Draw}. When the Malaysian football team winning a match is known as an event.

A repetitive match would produce a set of data that can be possible to be use to analyse the probability of the event happening again. If taking the Malaysian football team matches for the past 5 years as the experiment. We just have to count how many times that the Malaysian team win, lose and draw. Take for instance, IF, the Malaysian football team played in 50 matches in the past 5 years, out of that they won 4 matches, lose 40 matches and draw 6 matches. Then the probability calculations are Win 4/50 (0.08 or 8%), Lose 40/50 (0.8 or 80%) and Draw 6/50 (0.12 0r 12%). Therefore the chance for a next win in a match for Malaysian football team would be 0.08 or 8%.

Next lesson would be time series analysis

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